2 Suspects Arrested in Bhutto Killing

On Thursday, Pakistani police arrested two suspects in the suicide attack that killed former PM Benazir Bhutto on December 27th. According to the Associated Press, "Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema said the two men were arrested in Rawalpindi... but gave no further details." Cheema added that he expected the two to appear in "anti-terrorism court" Friday but declined to say whether the two were figures in the assassination. The arrests follow those of two more suspects last month, including a 15 year old who was allegedly part of a suicide squad sent to kill Bhutto, [see CHUP post for January 19]. Details surrounding the arrests are vague and conspiracy theories over who perpetrated the attack are still abound, although U.S. and Pakistani officials assert the assassination was masterminded by Beitullah Mehsud, the elusive leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban, the umbrella organization of Taliban-linked militants that have been battling Pakistani security forces near the Afghan border.

Yesterday, news sources reported that the Tehreek-e-Taliban declared an indefinite ceasefire in this fighting, although the Pakistani military spokesman denied knowledge of such a development, [see yesterday's post for more information]. Today, however, media outlets did note that the government was preparing for peace talks with the militants. According to Pakistan's The News, the development will likely be "greeted with skepticism by the United States and Pakistan's other Western allies, who believe Islamic militants exploited a failed truce last year to expand their reach into this turbulent, nuclear-armed country." The Daily Times reported that the military spokesman, Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, warned that this declaration of a ceasefire by militants "could be a move to regroup for another attack."

Abbas's assessment was echoed by a piece in the Christian Science Monitor today, which called the development "curious," adding it further highlighted "the confusion in Pakistan's tribal areas." According to the Monitor, "It appears that the militants in the tribal belt are maneuvering for time and space. Taliban leader Mullah Omar has recently been trying to turn the Taliban's attentions toward Afghanistan, not Pakistan. This cease-fire claim could represent an effort to call off Pakistan operations so that the Taliban can refocus and regroup." Ahmed Rashid, the author of Taliban [a book, which if you haven't already read, you really should] told the news outlet, "In the past, these cease-fires have resulted in militants being able to bide more time, build up resources, and then make much more effective attacks." Any solution, Rashid noted, must include restoring moderate tribal chiefs to power, many of whom have fled to Peshawar or Lahore amid the escalating violence and growing Taliban presence. If these leaders don't return, he said, "you are leaving the region in the hands of these militants." The military must also integrate FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Areas] into Pakistan in order to reduce the current power vacuum that has allowed to region to be susceptible to extremist influence.

In the continuing effort to blunt the influence of these militant groups, the U.S. confirmed today that they are "helping the Pakistanis double the size of their elite commando force," reported the International Herald Tribune Thursday. A senior Department of Defense official, Mike Vickers, told the news agency that the U.S. military presence in the country is fewer than 100 people and is focused on "targeted training." He stated, "It's been ongoing for a while. They're expanding their capability substantially; they're essentially doubling their force. So we're helping them with that expansion and trying to improve their capabilities at the same time. There's also some aviation training. It's been ongoing for several years." The IHT added, "The number of U.S. forces in Pakistan is a sensitive issue. Many Pakistanis openly support or sympathize with Al Qaeda, the Taliban or other militant groups and would view a sizable American presence in their country as an unwelcome intrusion."

Given the recent reported developments related to U.S. training and aid to Pakistan, I would be curious to know how Pakistanis in the FATA react to even this reportedly small amount of U.S. presence, given the anti-American sentiment on the ground. In an area plagued by violence, could this influence be depicted in a positive light? Could the Pakistani military do more to aid perceptions in that regard?

Note: the Council on Foreign Relations released an interesting interview with Ashley Tellis on the security situation in Pakistan, as well as a good backgrounder on the various militant groups in the country, [thanks Jessica!]. Image courtesy of the AFP.

NEW POLL: Who Should be the Leader of the PPP?

Last week's poll closed yesterday with interesting results. Despite Sen. Obama's recent hint at a U.S. intervention in Pakistan, the majority of CHUP readers still felt he should be the next U.S. president (48%). Only 20% of those who participated in the poll answered Sen. Clinton, while 16% responded that Sen. McCain should be the next man in the White House. Either our readers have immensely forgiven Obama for what some may call his "harsh" words against Pakistan, or he's just a more viable option than the other presidential front-runners.

In this week's poll, I wanted to touch on the significant developments related to the assassinated former PM Benazir Bhutto's party - the Pakistan People's Party, or the PPP. Yesterday, [see February 5 post] news sources revealed the contents of Bhutto's political will, which was reportedly read to party leaders during her funeral but was released yesterday to "end any doubts about Bhutto's wishes about the leadership of the party." According to news sources yesterday, Bhutto, in her will, called for her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, to lead the party. Although the Dawn reported yesterday that Zardari indicated he may be the next PM if the PPP wins the Feb. 18th elections, an article in the Hindu today disputed the claim, reporting Zardari said he has "no intention" of attaining the post, noting instead the party would decide its leader.

This week's poll seeks to survey your views on who should lead the party - should it be Zardari, widely seen as a divisive figure for the party, his son, Bilawal Bhutto, still a student in England, or even Bhutto's estranged 25 year old niece Fatima, well-known for writing and articulate opinions in Pakistan. There are also Makhdoom Amin Fahim - the Vice Chairman of the party, who is the expected PM candidate, and Aitzaz Ahsan - the prominent Pakistani lawyer who was recently put under house arrest [see February 3rd post].

A good side note: Zardari's op-ed piece in today's LA Times.

Militants Declare Ceasefire as Pakistan General among Eight Dead in Chopper Crash

On Wednesday, a Pakistani helicopter crashed in the Southern Waziristan area, killing 8, including Maj. Gen. Javed Sultan, the commanding officer of the Kohat garrison. An army spokesman told the BBC that the copter crashed because of a "technical fault" near the Afghan border. The News echoed the BBC News report by citing statements by chief military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas. The cause of the crash is "not believed to have been caused by hostile fire," he asserted, although Reuters noted the incident was a "setback" for Pakistan forces. South Waziristan has been wracked by fierce fighting between Taliban-linked militants and Pakistani security forces in recent weeks.

In related news, newswires reported that the Tehreek-e-Taliban, an umbrella organization for Taliban-linked militants, declared an "indefinite" ceasefire in fighting against the Pakistani military. According to the Associated Press, Maulvi Mohammed Umar, a "purported" spokesman for the militant coalition, said the ceasefire was declared following talks with the government. Umar told the AFP, "We have announced ceasefire for an indefinite period because the government stopped attacking us." However, sources reported that Pakistani military spokesman Abbas "denied knowledge of any talks" and said they had "no formal communication" with the militants regarding a ceasefire. Abbas told the AFP, There is no formal information conveyed to us from them about a ceasefire. When they stopped firing we thought it was because of the severe weather conditions in the region...Our position is very clear -- the operation has not ended, it will continue as long as the objectives the operations are achieved." According to the AP, "...any agreement by Pakistan to a cease-fire would likely be frowned on by its Western allies. A cease-fire in North Waziristan in September 2006, which collapsed the following July, was widely seen as giving Taliban and Al Qaeda a freer hand to stage cross-border attacks into Afghanistan and expand their reach inside Pakistan."

Bhutto Said in Will that Husband Should Lead Party

On Tuesday, newswires reported that assassinated former PM Benazir Bhutto's party, the PPP (Pakistan's People's Party) published her political will, in which she called for her husband to lead the party and said she feared for the country's future. Reuters cited a party spokesman who said "the will was being released to end any doubts about Bhutto's wishes for the leadership of the party." Following Bhutto's assassination on December 27, her husband Ali Zardari, and her son Bilawal Zardari Bhutto, were made joint chairmen of the PPP. In her political will, reportedly read out to party leaders after her funeral but kept private until today, Bhutto wrote, "I would like my husband Asif Ali Zardari to lead you in this interim period until you and he decide what is best...I say this because he is a man of courage and honor. He spent 11 years in prison without bending despite torture. He has the political stature to keep our party united."

According to Reuters, "Zardari, who was jailed on corruption charges but denied any wrongdoing, is regarded as a divisive figure. But with Bilawal still too young to run for parliament and yet to complete his university studies in Britain, it is Zardari who is the de facto leader of the party as it prepares for a February 18 general election." The PPP, reported CNN, will restart its campaign this week for the elections following the end of its 40 day self-imposed mourning period. Reuters added, "The PPP is likely to gain a considerable sympathy vote in the parliamentary elections because of Bhutto's murder."

However, will this new development and Zardari's forefront role in the party impact voters' perceptions of the PPP? According to a profile released by BBC News, Zardari has been seen as a political liability for his late wife's party. Widely known in Pakistan as "Mr. 10%," his corruption charges and alleged link to the murder of his brother-in-law Murtaza Bhutto in 1996, have seemingly haunted his reputation. However, even when he first married Benazir, Zardari apparently knew he was the "designated fall guy," a title he reportedly accepted, according to the BBC. Will this title come to haunt the party now before election time? Have perceptions of Zardari changed since Benazir's assassination?

Suicide Bomb Kills 6 in Rawalpindi

On Monday, a suicide bombing in Rawalpindi garnered significant press attention, and news sources reported the bomber, who was riding a motorbike, rammed into a minibus carrying security personnel, killing 6 people and wounding 30, [although Pakistan's Geo TV reported that 10 people were killed]. The attack occurred during Monday's morning rush hour. The Associated Press cited Bisharat Abbasi, the local police chief, who said, "The bus was destroyed during the blast on a road running through a bazaar near the offices of the army's National Logistics Cell." The AFP provided eyewitness accounts in its report today. One motor mechanic told the news agency, "The bus was completely destroyed. I saw dozens of people lying injured and dead on the road, covered in blood -- most were wearing army uniforms. One was a woman." Another man asserted, "There was a big ball of fire and smoke. Some pellets from the bomb hit the wall of my shop and I dived down, because I was injured in the arm in another blast that happened at this spot last year."

According to BBC News, authorities have blamed Taliban-linked militants for the attack. The news piece added, "A series of suicide bomb attacks have hit Rawalpindi in the last year. In December opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was killed at a rally there." Although the perpetrator of Bhutto's assassination has still not been confirmed, [the Pakistani government claims she was killed by Al Qaeda-linked militants], news sources on Sunday revealed details of her soon-to-be published book, entitled, Reconciliation: Islam, Democracy and the West that promised to add to the speculation. According to the Dawn newspaper, Bhutto noted, "I was told by both the Musharraf regime and the foreign Muslim government that four suicide bomber squads would attempt to kill me. These included, the reports said, squads sent by the Taliban warlord Beitullah Mehsud; Hamza Bin Laden, a son of Osama Bin Laden; Red Mosque militants; and a Karachi-based militant group." According to The News, she had informed Musharraf about the involvement of Hamza bin Laden in planning her assassination. Pakistan's Sunday Times published excerpts of the book, set to be released the second week of February.

Pakistan Kicked Me Out. Others were Less Lucky.

On Sunday, the Washington Post released a piece in its Outlook section by Nicholas Schmidle, a Pakistan-based fellow with the Institute of Current World Affairs whose alleged deportation from Pakistan caused a major stir in the international community, [see CHUP! post January 16th for more information]. He wrote, " The police came for me on a cold, rainy Tuesday night last month. They stood in front of my home in Islamabad, four men with hoods pulled over their heads in the driving rain. The senior officer, a tall, clean-shaven man, and I recognized one another from recent protests and demonstrations. Awkwardly, almost apologetically, he handed me a notice ordering my immediate expulsion from Pakistan. Rain spilled off a nearby awning and fell loudly into puddles." When Schmidle asked, "somewhat obtusely," what this meant, to which the officer responded, "I am here to take you to the airport. Tonight."

Although the document did not include the reasoning behind his expulsion, Schmidle "immediately felt that there was some connection to the travels and reporting I had done for a story published two days earlier in the New York Times Magazine, about a dangerous new generation of Taliban in Pakistan." The truth, he noted, "is that foreign journalists are barred from almost half the country; in most cases, their visas are restricted to three cities -- Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi. In Baluchistan province, which covers 44 percent of Pakistan and where ethnic nationalists are fighting a low-level insurgency, the government requires prior notification and approval if you want to travel anywhere outside the capital of Quetta. Such permission is rarely given. And the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), where the pro-Taliban militants are strong, are completely off-limits."

Schmidle's commentary is interesting in light of the recent controversy and criticisms of the Musharraf regime - most notably, the issues regarding the freedom of the press and the judiciary. On Saturday, news sources reported that Aitzaz Ahsan, a prominent Pakistani lawyer, [see op-ed post January 19th for more background] was put back under house arrest after he tried to visit the grave of former PM Benazir Bhutto. According to the Associated Press, Ahsan's detention came just two days after he had been released from three months of house arrest. The lawyer told news agencies that the ban was illegal and had been issued on the federal government's orders. He said, "I was just going to condole the death of our slain leader, but the government is scared and took this illegal action. We will contest this move."

With the elections in Pakistan fast approaching, Aitzaz Ahsan's re-arrest is curious, to say the least. Moreover, the issue of the press and the judiciary has been an increasingly problematic issue and further restrictions on these institutions promise to make the government exceedingly more unpopular. On Saturday, Pakistan's The News released a timely and pertinent piece by Dr. Tariq Hassan, a prominent Pakistani lawyer and the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, who discussed the issue of the courts and the ousted judges, as well as the need for an independent judiciary for the country.

New Bid to Control Pakistan's Tribal Areas

Today, one story in particular stood out to me - according to the Christian Science Monitor, "For the first time, the U.S. is putting public pressure on Pakistan by asking its leaders to let the U.S. help fight terrorists within the country. Though Pakistan has rebuffed these advances, it has shown signs of taking the terrorist threat more seriously, responding quickly and forcefully to militants' increasingly bold attacks. The monitor quoted Ismail Khan, a reporter with Dawn newspaper, who said, "There is a realization within the military establishment that the government has lost its authority in the tribal areas."

In recent weeks, the U.S. has offered military assistance to root out extremists in the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) with combat troops, CIA operations, or training. Although President Pervez Musharraf has rejected the "invasion" of U.S. troops, Washington has become increasingly concerned with militant activity in the region, particularly in the porous border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan. According to an article released by Reuters today, "The United States this year will start spending in earnest $750 million where its troops can't go in the hope of making Pakistan's unruly tribal lands less hospitable for Al Qaeda and the Taliban." If the U.S. succeeds in this mission, they hope other nations will help put up $2 billion for development and security in the semi-autonomous FATA. On the Pakistani military effort in the region so far, a U.S. official told Reuters, "The military campaign in FATA has not degraded extremist recruitment, training or operations."

The effort would and must be two-pronged: combining both development and security reforms, following the mantra, "you can't have development without security, and you can't have security without development." According to Reuters, overall literacy in the FATA region, consisting of a population of 3.2 million, is just 17 percent, compared to the national average of 56 percent. Moreover, there is reportedly only one doctor for every 6,750 people. Tribal communities in the area are tired of what they call the government's "empty promises," and a report from the International Crisis Group in late 2006 noted that "anticipation is turning into alienation." As a result, communities that may not inherently support extremism turn to these groups in this power vacuum. Following the earthquake in 2005, I went up north with my mother and sister and was more than a little surprised to see aid tents emblazoned with the titles of various Islamist groups.

The United States knows that it cannot personally implement the allocated funds to improve the FATA region. Raging anti-American sentiment in the area means the only realistic option is if reforms are carried out by Pakistani military and civil authorities. [Image courtesy of Reuters]