Car Bomb Kills 27 Ahead of Pakistan Vote

A car bomb killed 27 people and wounded 93 on Saturday when it exploded in front of a (Pakistan People's Party) PPP election office in Parachinar, in northern Pakistan. The blast, reported the AFP, increased security fears on the last day of campaigning, just two days before the elections. According to CNN, "The office was used by PPP parliamentary candidate Riaz Hussein, according to party spokesman Nazir Dhoki. The explosion occurred late in the afternoon." Some of the dead were workers for the political party, and the Associated Press cited Interior Minister Hamid Nawaz who said "the suicide bomber drove into a crowd as they were preparing to eat." Although he did not speculate on who might have perpetrated the attack, the AP noted, "Monday's elections are taking place against a backdrop of rising Islamic militancy throughout Pakistan, and many candidates have been discouraged from holding large rallies. Security fears are highest in lawless tribal areas along the Afghan border."

An article in today's Dawn reported that the federal government has warned the provincial police chiefs to "step up security" following intelligence reports that suicide bombers may strike "in the next 72 hours" to sabotage the Feb. 18th elections. Dawn added, "Sources said that high-level talks were being held to review plans for the protection of sensitive installations and important political figures." Also interesting is that the government has indicated threats of attacks on some Arab diplomatic missions in the country, namely Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq.

Despite today's bombing and security-related developments, much press coverage surrounding Monday's election have been devoted to the issue of "poll rigging." According to the aforementioned AFP piece, "Opposition groups have accused Musharraf's administration of rigging the polls to head off possible impeachment if a hostile parliament is voted in."

In response to this widespread concern that the polls will be manipulated, "Tens of thousands of Pakistani civilians have signed up as election monitors," reported the Wall Street Journal yesterday. The news agency added, Pakistan can ill afford the kind of problems that have sparked unrest following past contests. "Voters will be choosing members of Parliament. The party that winds up on top will nominate the next prime minister, who will share power with embattled President Pervez Musharraf. Voters will also select governments in the nation's tribal regions and four provinces, two of which have been run by a coalition of conservative Islamist parties [referring to NWFP and Balochistan." If Monday's elections are seen as credible, that could defuse national tensions and unrest and perhaps "nudge Pakistan's fractious political parties to form a more unified government," the WSJ assessed. The article cited some significant statistics based on the IRI poll released this past week - namely, if the main party that backs Musharraf, the PML-Q, wins the elections, 79% of Pakistani polled would feel the elections had been rigged. One can only imagine the riots that could follow if such a result occurred.

The President is obviously fully aware of these allegations and concerns and has pledged free and fair elections. According to the Daily Times editorial today, Musharraf told political parties, "The winner should not be arrogant and the loser should accept his defeat with grace." The Daily Times called the worries associated with the polls and the President's subsequent responses, "a complex psychology of action and reaction between those who are holding the election and those who are participating in them." The editors added, "The rigging fear is a genuine fear, not nursed by the political parties alone. The media and neutral observers in Pakistan have raised very convincing objections to the way the Election Commission has handled the electoral list. In fact a case against these apparent irregularities is in the Supreme Court, investing the whole issue with legal significance."

As someone who watches the current U.S. presidential race and the upcoming Pakistani elections with equal fascination, the differences in the political atmosphere stand in stark contrast to one another. Whereas U.S. voters' biggest complaint seems to revolve around super-delegates, Pakistanis are worried about rigged polls, security surrounding election stations, and whether a perceived rigged election would bring further unrest to a country already laden with overflowing tensions. I am not saying this is not expected of a developing nation recovering from years of conflict, corruption and ping-ponged authoritarian rule - I am merely highlighting the scale of our problems. Although the number of political parties participating in this election have dropped dramatically, there seems to be so much more international attention, so much more at stake, and so much more that could happen if the results are not to our liking.

Before I end today, I'd like to highlight another great piece by Khaled Ahmed in Pakistan's Friday Times. He wrote, "The new government will be a 'negotiating' government. It will negotiate with Al Qaeda and Taliban Tehreek in the Tribal Areas about the nature of the state...It will negotiate with the elements behind the insurrection in Balochistan on what the federal government will retain out of the powers mentioned in the Constitution...It will similarly have to negotiate with the sub-nationalisms gathering strength in the NWFP and Sindh..." In his opinion, new elections will be demanded soon enough after this new government "is shell-shocked by the challenges of governance it faces and loses its head." - Thoughts?

Pakistan Attack Victims Mourned

On Saturday, 25 people were killed and 35 were injured in a suicide attack targeting an Awami National Party election rally in Charsadda. The ANP is a secular political party that competes against Islamist parties for support among the NWFP's ethnic Pashtun community. One man, who attended the funeral of two of Saturday's victims, told the Associated Press on Sunday that the ANP has "promoted peace" in the turbulent province, adding, "We do not understand why such a big attack happened." According to the AFP, Interior Minister Hamid Nawaz linked the attack to the wave of bombings perpetrated by Al Qaeda-linked militants, "that have claimed more than 70 lives this year."

Pakistan's Daily Times reported that the ANP announced a three-day mourning period for the victims. Dawn cited Afrasiab Khattak, the party's provincial chief, who asserted the explosion was "a conspiracy to delay the polls." Reuters, in its article today, also quoted ANP spokesman Zahid Khan, who reiterated Khattak's statements, noting, "This attack is carried out by the forces who want to subvert elections." The AFP added, "The bombing has further raised fears for the security of general elections on February 18..." Image from the AP.

Results from Scotland Yard Investigation Released; PPP Disputes Findings

On Friday, results from the widely-reported Scotland Yard investigation into the assassination of Bhutto's death dominated press coverage of Pakistan. According to the NY Times this morning, the investigation revealed that Bhutto died after hitting her head as she was tossed by the force of the suicide blast, not from an assassin's bullet, as some suggested. According to the news agency, "The findings support the Pakistani government’s assertion that Ms. Bhutto died of a head injury, while also dismissing an account that had been greeted with disbelief by Ms. Bhutto’s supporters, other Pakistanis and medical experts." The Washington Post cited the investigation report, which said, "The inevitable conclusion is that there was one attacker in the immediate vicinity of the vehicle in which Ms Bhutto was traveling."

Not surprisingly, news sources reported later that Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party disputed the claims, insisting she was killed by gunfire. The PPP spokeswoman, Sherry Rehman, said the party did not reject the findings outright and would give a final reaction once it had fully reviewed the report. However, according to a later-released NY Times piece, she said the PPP is still pursuing its demand for a United Nations investigation and "was no looking into hiring its own private international investigators." She told reporters, "We are seeking a larger probe into the hidden hands that organized, financed, sponsored and perpetrated this event." Rehman said the investigators had been working in Pakistan under certain constraints that could call their conclusions into question.

To be frank, the bottom line is that BB was assassinated by some kind of terrorist element - and that fact alone represents a much wider problem that has deeper ramifications for the security of this country. Instead of the 'he said-she said' debate, we should pay more attention to that overarching issue. [Image from the AFP]

Suicide Bomb Kills 6 in Rawalpindi

On Monday, a suicide bombing in Rawalpindi garnered significant press attention, and news sources reported the bomber, who was riding a motorbike, rammed into a minibus carrying security personnel, killing 6 people and wounding 30, [although Pakistan's Geo TV reported that 10 people were killed]. The attack occurred during Monday's morning rush hour. The Associated Press cited Bisharat Abbasi, the local police chief, who said, "The bus was destroyed during the blast on a road running through a bazaar near the offices of the army's National Logistics Cell." The AFP provided eyewitness accounts in its report today. One motor mechanic told the news agency, "The bus was completely destroyed. I saw dozens of people lying injured and dead on the road, covered in blood -- most were wearing army uniforms. One was a woman." Another man asserted, "There was a big ball of fire and smoke. Some pellets from the bomb hit the wall of my shop and I dived down, because I was injured in the arm in another blast that happened at this spot last year."

According to BBC News, authorities have blamed Taliban-linked militants for the attack. The news piece added, "A series of suicide bomb attacks have hit Rawalpindi in the last year. In December opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was killed at a rally there." Although the perpetrator of Bhutto's assassination has still not been confirmed, [the Pakistani government claims she was killed by Al Qaeda-linked militants], news sources on Sunday revealed details of her soon-to-be published book, entitled, Reconciliation: Islam, Democracy and the West that promised to add to the speculation. According to the Dawn newspaper, Bhutto noted, "I was told by both the Musharraf regime and the foreign Muslim government that four suicide bomber squads would attempt to kill me. These included, the reports said, squads sent by the Taliban warlord Beitullah Mehsud; Hamza Bin Laden, a son of Osama Bin Laden; Red Mosque militants; and a Karachi-based militant group." According to The News, she had informed Musharraf about the involvement of Hamza bin Laden in planning her assassination. Pakistan's Sunday Times published excerpts of the book, set to be released the second week of February.

Gunmen in Pakistan free School Hostages

On Monday, breaking news coverage of Pakistan focused on armed men taking 250 schoolchildren and teachers hostage after escaping from police in the Bannu district of the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) earlier today. However, later on Monday, news sources reported the gunmen surrendered to "tribal negotiators" in exchange for safe passage from the area. The Associated Press, AFP, and BBC News quoted statements made by Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema, who asserted on Pakistani television, "The criminals have surrendered to the jirga [tribal council] along with their weapons. No children have been hurt and all have been released." The AP emphasized in its report that Cheema described the gunmen as "criminals" rather than Islamic militants. The AP and the UK's Guardian Unlimited also cited President Pervez Musharraf, who told a joint news conference in London, "It was incidental that those criminals entered the school. It has been resolved peacefully." District police chief Dar Ali Khattak also told reporters that the militants had "all types of weapons like rocket launchers and grenades."

There have been heavy clashes between the military and Islamist militants in recent weeks, a subject that has been widely covered by the media. On Monday, the Pakistani press reported the Army reclaimed the Kohat tunnel on Sunday in fighting that left 24 militants dead and two security personnel injured. Military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas told the Daily Times, "Engineers are checking the tunnel for any explosives planted by militants. The tunnel and Indus Highway will be opened soon."

Monday's hostage-taking and subsequent surrender is significant to me not only because of what happened, but how the government failed to take complete advantage of the situation to further depict these militants in a negative light. In Iraq, Al Qaeda increasingly alienated its support because of its indiscriminate bombings - killing not just Iraqi Security Forces and U.S. soldiers, but also innocent civilians. As a result, many former insurgents allied with U.S. forces and fought against the extremist group. Likewise, today's incident (if Taliban-linked militants were behind it) can and should be broadcast in a similar light in order to garner the support of the local populace - that these militants are not acting in your interest, they kill indiscriminately, and their actions put your children and women in harm's way. In a culture heavily defined by honor, these themes curry support in the government's favor, and should be used as such. [Image from BBC News]

Bomb Blast in Peshawar Kills 5

According to breaking news reports today, a suicide bomber detonated explosives in Peshawar, killing 5 and injuring 23 others. Although western news sources noted the bombing occurred at "a Shiite mosque" in the city, several Pakistani news sources, including The News, specifically reported the attack happened "at the door of [an] Imambargah when people entering there were being scanned." Imambargahs are also known as Hussainias, which are congregation halls for Shiite ritual ceremonies, particularly those associated with Muharram. The AP reported, "The blast comes as minority Shiite Muslims prepare to mark the Ashoura festival, which in previous years has been marred by sectarian violence involving rival Sunnis." The news agency also cited Pakistan's Dawn TV that noted, "the Imambargah Qasim Baig mosque was crowded with worshippers at the time of the attack." A "crowd of enraged Shiites," crying and beating their chests, reportedly prevented the Associated Press reporter from reaching the scene. A separate article from The News reported that Karachi declared a "security high alert" on Thursday following the Peshawar bombing. Sectarian-motivated attacks often occur during Ashoura - just yesterday, a suicide bombing in Iraq targeting Shiite worshipers in Diyala province killed at least 8 people, and the bombing in Peshawar today reportedly occurred in the same quarter of the city where a suicide attack during Ashoura last year killed 11 people.

Most sources in today's Western press focused their coverage more heavily on an incident that occurred yesterday - when Islamist militants attacked and seized a small Pakistani army fort near the Afghan border. According to the LA Times, "Although the fighters did not gain significant ground in the attack Tuesday night on Sararogha Fort, they did further erode confidence in the U.S.-allied government's ability to control the frontier area where the Taliban and Al Qaeda flourish." The news agency cited Talat Masood, a retired general who is now a political analyst, who said Wednesday, "The militants are now challenging the army openly. They have become very bold and are consolidating their positions." The NY Times reported that Tehreek-i-Taliban, "an Islamic group that is sympathetic to the Taliban," said that it had carried out the attack and had killed 16 soldiers and captured 24. The newspaper added, "Militant groups operating in the tribal region formed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan ­ the Taliban Movement of Pakistan ­ last month, to coordinate their activities and wage a joint struggle against Pakistani forces."

An article in Pakistan's Daily Times newspaper reported today that Pakistan is "taking a more welcoming view of U.S. suggestions for using American troops to train and advise its own forces in the fight against anti-government extremists." The news agency cited U.S. commander of U.S. Central Command Adm. William Fallon who said Wednesday that "he believes increased violence inside Pakistan in recent months had led the country’s leaders to conclude that they must focus more intensively on Qaeda hideouts near Afghan border." Fallon said expanded U.S. military assistance to Pakistan would include a U.S. training program for tribal groups in the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas).

Fallon's statements yesterday are extremely significant given the same tribal model that is currently being applied to Iraq. The organizations, known as the Awakening Councils (or interchangeably in some provinces as the Concerned Local Citizen Groups), has turned predominately Sunni tribes against Al Qaeda in Iraq, and has subsequently been hailed as a success. The question, however, is could such a model be applied to Pakistan? Are there inherent differences in Pakistani tribal culture that may not allow such an approach to take root?

Musharraf Under Pressure as Police Probe Bombings

On Monday, 10 people were killed and more than 40 were injured in a bomb blast in a crowded market in Karachi on Monday. News sources, including the LA Times and the Pakistan's Daily Times, noted that an explosive was reportedly rigged to a motorcycle and left near a fruit cart. The Daily Times cited Sindh Police Inspector General Azhar Ali Farooqui, who said, "The bomb had exploded around 7.45pm at a market near the Gul Ahmed Textile Mill, within the jurisdiction of the Quaidabad Police Station." Although no one has claimed responsibility for the recent wave of attacks, authorities say they were designed to exacerbate instability ahead of the February elections. Government officials, not surprisingly, blamed Al Qaeda-linked militants from tribal regions along the Afghan border for the bombing. The LA Times added, "The bomb was detonated in an area dominated by Pashtun tribesmen who have moved to the city."

Following the bombing, President Pervez Musharraf faced new calls for his resignation, reported the Agence France-Presse (AFP) news agency on Tuesday. Monday's blast occurred as Musharraf visited Karachi, although the Associated Press noted that he did not appear to be the target of the blast. Nevertheless, opposition leaders called for the ex-general to resign in the wake of the recent spate of violence, that the AFP reported has killed more than 800 people in the last year. Yesterday, Pakistan Muslim League-N leader Nawaz Sharif told an election rally of about 3,000 people in Islamabad, "Musharraf has destroyed Pakistan. He is blindly following America's orders. The whole of Pakistan is drowned in blood." [For an interesting piece on the militants in the country, see today's NY Times article.]

There has been increasing pressure on the Pakistani President to resign. Pakistan's prominent newspaper, The News, featured recent statements made by Pervez Hoodbhoy, described as "the brilliant Physics professor at Quaid-e-Azam University," who told an Italian journalist, "I want Musharraf to go -- resign or somehow be removed, preferably without bloodshed. I want the independent judiciary restored, a new neutral caretaker government installed for overseeing free and fair elections, and then elections that would decide upon the new parliament and prime minister. This will not immediately solve Pakistan's fundamental problems -- army dominance, maldistribution of wealth, religious fanaticism -- but it would get Pakistan on the track to democracy instead of the self-destruction it is racing towards."

The cycle of violence and instability in Pakistan has been self-enforcing, and many have pointed a finger at the current President, who we have seen become increasingly more defensive as he has come under attack, [see Monday's post with the Newsweek interview as well as his recent interview with CBS News' Lara Logan on Jan. 6th]. I've noted this shift in his interviews with interest - from a man who once instilled hope in Pakistanis to an ex-general who has become increasingly unpopular and on the defensive - when did that change start? Do all Pakistani politicians and leaders have a shelf-life before they, too, are deemed insufficient for the process?

New Pakistan Poll Shows Distrust of Leaders

An opinion poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan found that nearly half of the 1,300 Pakistani men and women surveyed suspect that "government agencies or government-linked politicians" killed Benazir Bhutto, reported an Associated Press article today. According to the news agency, the findings highlighted the "popular mistrust" of the Musharraf government just ahead of the February elections. The government has blamed Al Qaeda-linked militants for the December 27th assassination of Benazir, an incident that has sparked major domestic and international controversy. However, despite the government claims, only 17 percent of Pakistanis suspected Al Qaeda or the Taliban. Reuters provided further statistics from the poll, reporting that 12 percent suspected the U.S. involvement in her death, while 4 percent believed India was behind it.

In a Newsweek interview with Fareed Zakaria released Friday, Musharraf dismissed claims that the government was complicit in the former PM's death, stating, "I refuse to listen to such accusations. I refuse to. I am the government, OK? I am not feudal, and I am not tribal. May I ask you, would you, if you were at the head of affairs, ever think of killing somebody like that? It didn't appear in our minds. Would it appear in your mind that you could get rid of a person through a bomb blast?" On the government investigation into her assassination, Musharraf asserted that the body should be exhumed, "100 percent." He added, "Because I know for sure there is no bullet wound other than on the right side. Whether it was a bullet or a strike, I don't want to comment, I don't know."

The conflicting reports surrounding Benazir's death has generated rumors and conspiracy theories alike. Two new reports "suggest that the killing may have been an ambitious plot rather than an isolated act of violence and that the government of President Pervez Musharraf knows far more than it's admitted about the murder," reported McClatchy News on Friday.

What do you think?