Tuesday, February 19, 2008

CONTRIBUTOR: Analysis of the Election Results by Fahad Hasan

The federal parliamentary election results, which are still being counted, dealt a significant blow to the Musharraf regime, since most of the cabinet members serving in the PML-Q pre-emergency government lost their contested seats. If the results continue to pan out as expected, then we will have a PPP-led coalition government with the PML-N. Therefore, they will have the power to choose the next Prime Minister. Possible PM candidates would include Makhdoom Amin Fahim and Shah Mehmood Qureshi, two notable PPP figures.

However, the opposition victory is only the first of many battles. If the new government lives up to its pledge to fight for the restoration of the judiciary, they will be at logger-heads with the President. If they get a 2/3 majority in the Parliament (as they should have) and vote to restore the judiciary, Musharraf will be left with 4 potential options:

1) Accept the Parliament's demands
2) Cut a side deal with one or more of the parties in the coalition government and derail the efforts to restore the judiciary-- PPP would be the most likely to indulge in that
3) Refuse to allow the restoration of the judiciary and dissolve the newly-elected Parliament citing that he is "looking out for the best interest of the state"
4) Analyze the situation and lack of public support and resign

If the President were to resign, the new Chief of Army Staff-- Gen. Kayani would have two choices:

1) Declare himself President and continue with business as usual
2) Proclaim that the Army was leaving politics and let the Senate decide the new president and Pakistan would return to the road of democracy

The above analysis is the opinion of a CHUP contributor, Fahad Hasan. If you would like to provide your own election analysis, please email CHUP at changinguppakistan@gmail.com.


Maria said...

Musharaff is too egomaniacal to resign, and hopefully not stupid enough to dissolve parliament, or he'll have full on warfare on his hands. I'm pretty sure he's going to cut a deal because he's self-serving. Either way, this has been great news for Pakistan. My father went and voted in Lahore yesterday morning as well. It's good to know Pakistan is on some kind of road to democracy, however rocky it may be.

Fahad said...

I agree-- the road is rocky but reassuring none-the-less.

$herry said...

I HOPE Mushi doesn't screw around with the parliament by disolving it. I think the elections were pretty smooth (and somewhat fair in comparison with the last 30 years), is an indication that Mushi has some interest in the future of Pakistan.

I'm rejoicing that all the corrupt goons in the past 6 yrs have lost all their seats and will now be sitting in the sidelines. The new parliament coming in has a lot of challenges to face, and the people are WATCHING.

Times have changed, and if Pakistan doesn't shape up soon...it's going to be doomed!